085. Secular Trend

The Secular trend, or merely trend, is the long-run behavior of the variable over an extended length of time. It reflects the general direction of the time series as upward or downward.

Examples Include:

A. The rising number of foreign cars sold in the United States,.

B. The increase in the volume of credit transactions over the past few years.

C. The downward movement in the number of people living in rural areas in the last two decades.

Some variables move smoothly over time, while others show “fits and starts” that produce a rather bumpy ride.

Figure 8.1a shows the downward trend in agricultural employment over the last decade. There is a little variation around the steadily declining trend. Figure 8.1b, on the other hand, shows the upward secular movement in U. S. bank deposits. The data show considerable variation above and below the trend line drawn through the middle of the data.

A b

Figure 8.1 – Long-Term Trends in the U. S. Economic Activity: A – The Downward Trend; B – The Upward Secular Movement

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