039. Baye’s Rule and Conditional Probability

The a Priori probability is the probability estimate before the event occurs, and may be subject to change after further study. Posterior probabilities are conditional probabilities based on additional information.

For Example, the probability of drawing a jack from a deck is 4/52 (a priori probability). After it was learned that the card was a face card, the probability is P(J|F) = 4/12 (posterior probability).

For some events A and B Baye’s Rule States that

, (4.8)

Where

. (4.9)

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